![]() Conversely, the demographics of the workforce could matter because some groups, such as teenagers, work part time voluntarily, thereby reducing the incidence of IPT. For example, industry composition matters because industries differ in their reliance on part-time work schedules, with high rates in selected service industries such as leisure and hospitality-consider hotels and restaurants. Beyond IPT and unemployment rates, we include direct measures of structural features of state labor markets that affect the demand and supply for part-time work, such as industrial composition and demographics of the workforce. states plus the District of Columbia for 2003 through 2016. Our analysis relies on annual data for the 50 U.S. Figure 1 largely confirms this earlier prediction.Īn updated, more complete analysis pins down the factors associated with high levels of involuntary part-time work (Valletta, Bengali, and van der List 2018). Or, did it represent labor market slack-that is, weakness associated with the business cycle-that would completely dissipate as the recovery proceeded? Using data through 2014, we uncovered an important contribution of persistent structural factors, suggesting that IPT was likely to remain elevated even as the unemployment rate fell. In a 2015 FRBSF Economic Letter, a coauthor and I asked whether elevated IPT in the aftermath of the Great Recession was here to stay (Valletta and van der List 2015). These numbers imply that the level of IPT work is about 40% higher than would normally be expected at this point in the economic expansion. This represents about 1.4 million additional individuals who are stuck in part-time jobs. The gap between the two series closed from 2010 to 2014 and has been quite narrow since then, compared with earlier periods.ĭuring early 2018, involuntary part-time work was running nearly a percentage point higher than its level the last time the unemployment rate was 4.1%, in August 2000. The IPT rate has remained somewhat high compared with the unemployment rate during the recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-09. Gray shading denotes NBER recession dates.įigure 1 displays the IPT and unemployment rates over the past few decades. Note: Involuntary part-time rate expressed as share of total civilian employment. unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and author’s calculations. Policymakers have flagged the extent of IPT work as one important indicator of the state of the labor market in the wake of the Great Recession (Yellen 2014). Why? The main reason is that U6 includes individuals who are employed part time but want a full-time job-the so-called “involuntary part-time” group, or IPT, labeled “part time for economic reasons” by the U.S. This is near historical lows, indicating a very tight labor market.īy contrast, the broader measure of labor market tightness called U6 has remained somewhat elevated compared with past lows. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.1% in recent months (through March 2018). SF FED blog Involuntary Part-Time Work: Yes, It’s Here to Stay
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